Tour de France 2022 – stage 17 preview and predictions

Stage 16 was a near stale-mate day in the Tour de De France 2022. The biggest victim was a sick Romain Bardet while Alexandr Vlasov capitalise, partly the free pass he got. Things are expected to undergo a bigger shake up in the general classifications and the maillot à pois as from today.

You can rewatch Hugo Houle emotional first victory in a Tour de France here and read the full report here.

Tour de France 2022 stage 17 preview

The good news for the guys will be the drop in temperature. We will evade the heat wave to enter the rather ‘comfortable’  30 degrees of the Pyrenees.

Pogacar has lost another man in Marc Soler is now down to only 4 teammates while Team Jumbo Visma, having lost 2 major riders, is using unconventional method to protect the jersey. Team Ineos Grenadiers is one of the only six teams left with their full squad. The question arises as to whether they will use their numerical superiority or are they content with a unexpected podium place with Geraint Thomas?

tour de france 2022 stage 17
129,7 km short but with 4 major climbs

The 17th stage starts will a long flat section where the more powerful riders will try to get a jump into the breakaway. Wout Van Aert is an atypical rider and the question as to whether he will be part of attacks does not need to be asked. The only certainty is that neither of Team Jumbo Visma nor Team UAE Emirates have the guns to control the break away for the first flat 53km with enough left to protect their respective leaders.

The Maillot à Pois fight

The first team that comes to mind when it concerns the breakaway is Trek Segafredo. Giulio Ciccone has played it smart by allowing Simon Geschke to get only 12 points in stage 16 while he preserved himself for the next two big stages. To accompany him will be Quinn Simmons and Bauke Mollema. The latter will be aiming for a stage win.

Simon Geschke will of course follow the moves and will hope to be getting a hand from Antony Perez and Ion Izagirre. Benjamin Thomas could also prove to be very useful in the opening flat kms.

Again for the Maillot à Pois battle, will be Neilson Powless. The American will also rely on his team-mates to support him. Rigoberto Uran, Alberto Bettiol and Stefan Bisseger will not say no to another break-away.

Pierre Latour is the last rider close to the top who will also be trying to grab those precious points. While it is very unlikely that Louis Meintjes, sitting 7th will be making this classification his priority, other contenders such as Thibaut Pinot and Chris Froome might work their way up.

Le Col D’Aspin – category 1- 12km at 6.5%

The Col D’Aspin is one of the legendary climb of the Tour

The Col D’Aspin is where the breakaway will settle with the weaker riders and teammates are expected to let go after building a maximum gap. The fight for the Maillot à pois will heat up as we reach the summit.

Hourquette d’Ancizan – category 2 – 8.2 km at 5.1 %

A very unusual climb that undergoes a 2 km rest section midway

After a very steep first kms, the riders will be allowed a descent one 1 km where some riders that have been suffering will be hoping to find their way back before a final 2 km at arounf 7.3 %

The Col de Val Louron – Azet – category 1- 10.7km at 6,8%

The 16km of descent and valley that precedes the start of the climb should not be neglected as witnessed by the performance of Hugo Houle. Someone like Bauke Mollema, Chris Froome, Matej Mohoric or Bob Jungels could be inspired to have a go from here with a little over 30 km to the finish to go. The climb in itself starts with a very soft opening 2 kms that prevented the climb from being categorised as hors categorie.

A 10.7 km climb with gradient that speaks for itself

Peyragudes – category 1- 8km at 7.8 %

Peyragudes is a climb with an astonishing final km that will hurt many.

Complaining of sickness, it is very unlikely that Romain Bardet will repeat his feat of 5 years ago. As much as we are expecting attacks from Tadej Pogacar, the last km is more favorable to Jonas Vingegaard. The maillot jaune has responded to all of the Slovenians attacks with ease so far and could use the final kms to make his move this time.

The Tour de France stage 17 predictions

Under normal circumstances, the Maillot Jaune would want to make a statement and win this stage, but both of the first two riders are severely deprived of major helpers and would not mind  break away win. The fate of the break away will thus depend on the attitude of other teams such as Ineos Grenadiers and if any riders hampering others chances of a top 10 is present at the front

★☆☆☆☆ Enric Mas 

Down by more than 12 minutes, the spaniard could use this opportunity to get into the break with some fellows and take the win

★☆☆☆☆ Luis Leon Sanchez

Only Fred Wright, had a better tour de France than him at Bahrain Victorious Team. The former Spanish champion still has some good legs left in him and could take a vintage win here.

★☆☆☆☆ Nairo Quintana

The best of Nairo Quintana we have seem for years. Sadly with this type of form, it is mission impossible for him to be allowed enough of a room for a stage win, from wherever he wishes to attack. Team Ineos-Grenadiers is really serious about protecting G.Thomas’ podium!

★★☆☆☆ Chris Froome

Speaking of vintage win, this one would go down in the books. Like him or not, his recent improving performances has caught the eye and could inspire the 4 time Tour de France winner to something special.

★★☆☆☆ Michael Woods

He lives in the area and looks to be finally on form. After a rather effortless third place, he could have still in the tank to take a third one home for Israel Premier Tech.

★★★☆☆ Nick Shultz

Not the famous name on the list here, but his perfromance keeps getting better and better. Surely a top 5 finish on the day.

★★★☆☆ Bauke Mollema

It is inconceivable to think that the Dutchman will finish the Tour de France 2022 without giving himself a proper shot at glory. Surely he has something planned.

★★★☆☆ David Gaudu

The Frenchman looks to be getting better and is expected to cement a place in the Top 10. At more than 5 mins, should he place an early attack he could be allowed to play the stage win.

★★★★☆ Thomas Pidcock; Adam Yates

Both stay in Andorra, not far from the finish. What is Ineos Grenadiers waiting for to unleash them and put Team UAE Emirates and Team Jumbo-Visma under pressure?

★★★★☆ Tadej Pogacar

Attack , Attack and Attack and if it comes back together attack again.

★★★★☆ Carlos Verona

After a sublime first tour de France display by Matteo Jorgenson, he could be the man to cap it off for Movistar and Spain with a long awaited, much due Tour de France win. We have seen what he can do in the Criterium du Dauphine and surely he will relish his chances unless his team decides to lead the chase to hunt him.

★★★★★ Thibaut Pinot

With Storer and Madouas allowed in the break instead of him, surely he has this stage marked. If he get into the break, there is so many things he could do. From racking up those mountains point to a first French stage win

★★★★★ Jonas Vingegaard

The higher we go, the better the Dane gets. If he manages to respond every single attack from Tadej Pogacar, which he really seems to be able to do, he will make sure to have a dig of his own and bridge to whoever is up-front.

cycling.today Contributors Predictions

★★ ★★★ ★★★★ ★★★★★
CTT Thomas Gaudu Pogacar Quintana Vingegaard
Gsipp Pidcock Lutsenko Geschke Jungels Woods
Guisseperides Pinot Thomas Pidcock Vingegaard Pogacar
TeoGoals Grosschartner Vlasov Bardet Vingegaard Pogacar
Mufcfaan Mollema Verona Pogacar  Pinot Vingegaard

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