Tour de France 2022 – stage 16 preview and predictions

With the heat wave expected to blow out of proportion on stage 16, the start of the final week of the Tour de France 2022, fingers are crossed as we are awaiting the most thrilling fight since the  Andy Schleck vs Contador days. The Polka Dot Jersey is another prize that will animate the coming stages. The Green Jersey, unless tragedy strikes, is however already promised to Wout Van Aert.

The Maillot à Pois / Polka Dot Jersey battle


The Maillot à Pois will be one hell of a battle. One second category climb, Six first category and Two Hors Categories make up for 105 points to taken in the next 3 days. With no points doubled at the finish, we are expected to have certain talented riders not involved in the general classification to try to win it.

Simon Geschke has defended his jersey longer than many expected him, but he has 2 riders in Guilio Ciccone and Neilson Powless who have made thier intentions about the famous jersey clear. Both do not get along, come from American teams and are their respective teams only hope of getting on the final podiums. They will be prioritising KOM points in breakaways over stage wins in the coming days.

Louis Meintjes is only off the jersey by 7 points but he is also less than 5 mins from the yellow jersey. This latter situation compromises his chances of getting into breakaways. After a rather quiet start to the Tour de France 2022, Pierre Latour will be more than delighted to be that close to the Maillot a Pois and is planning to give it a go.

Anthony Perez will relish his freedom of chasing a dream Tour de France podium. After Showing a glimpse of his past best, Chris Froome will be hungry for more. While not his main target, the four time Tour de France will not say no to  the possibility of winning something after all these past years struggles. 

Le Maillot Jaune
4 R. BARDETTEAM DSM+ 00h 03′ 01”
7 L. MEINTJESINTERMARCHE .W-.G + 00h 04′ 24”
8 D. GAUDUGROUPAMA – FDJ+ 00h 04′ 24”
10 E. MASMOVISTAR TEAM+ 00h 09′ 58”

Jonas Vingegaard is leading by 2 min 22 seconds after a brilliant display by him and his team-mates on the Col du Granon. With the withdrawal of two main men, Kruijswijk and Roglic, the situation is now even for Tadej Pogacar. The two times Tour de France champion has promised to attack and keep attacking.

The weakening of the two favourites’ team might make the affairs of Ineos Grenadiers. The British team has the experience and men to make something out of this race. Geraint Thomas has been riding like we have never seen before and will be rubbing his hands in anticipation of the 40 km time trial. The form of Adam Yates and as witnessed at the Alpe D’Huez, Thomas Pidcock presence in the top 10 could be used as set up for an ambush.

French hope is really heavy to carry. After an efficient behind the curtain rise, Romain Bardet seems to have reached his limit as the attention on him started. He could either regroup himself for a final push or totally falter. The same is applicable for the other French hopeful, David Gaudu.

It is not sure as to how long Louis Meintjes will be underestimated, but allowing him into another breakaway adventure, will be a decision many will regret. Finally, while it has been amazing to see Nairo Quintana performing that well again, there is a feeling that there is still room for something remarkable.

Tour de France 2022 – stage 16 preview and predictions

A stage for the break-away? A fight among the GC contenders? We will have both in this Tour de France 2022 stage 16.

Tour de France 2022 stage 16 profile
Tour de France 2022 stage 16 profile

The stage starts with three, (2 of which are categorised) small but ruthless climbs in 45 km. This will be the terrain of some serious attacks from those wanting to take the day, or aiming to add some KOM in the later first categorised climbs.

The intermediate sprint is situated  at 67,8 km and it would be an absolute mistake for Wout Van Aert to leave Jonas Vingegaard for these points.

The first 113 km ‘run -in’ to the first categorised climb is will be where breakaways with their team-mate will try to extend their lead to the peloton to the maximum. This is also the appropriate terrain for Team Ineos Grenandiers to try something.

Team Jumbo-Visma and Team UAE Emirates will make sure to keep anyone threatening with in reasonable range. If none is present, the day is set for a break away win.

The General Classification Riders will not just roll to the the finish. Attacks and more precisely from Tadej Pogacar is expected to happen on the punishing final climb of the day. It will all be about how much Jonas Vingegaard will be able to hold his wheel.

Port de Lers – 1st category- 11,4 km at 7 %

Port de Lers
Port de Lers – 1st category – 11.4 km a 7%


It is surprising as to how this climb is not classified as an Hors Categories with its punishing  11,4 km of ascent. The maximum km gradient is of 10.3% is at the second kilometer.

This will be the climb, that Guilio Ciccone, Neilson Powless and Pierre Latour will be giving their all to grab the maximum points.

Mur de Peguere – 9,3km at 7.9 %
Mur de Péguère

The second part of the climb is an absolute shocker! After a rather gentle 5km entry to the climb,  the riders will have to deal with an insane 12 % average to the finish with a maximum sector of 18%.

Tour de France 2022 stage 16 predictions

★☆☆☆☆ Anthony Perez

The Frenchman winning the stage is not that far fetched. He has shown a good climbing form and  a some decent descending technique in the Alpe D’Huez stage.

★☆☆☆☆ Quinn Simmons

What a brilliant end of Tour, he is having! He will definitely be part of the break away. While he will initially be tasked to bringing Giulio Ciccone to the KOM points or even Bauke Mollema to a stage win, a run of fateful cricumstances could be his green flag.

★★☆☆☆ Rigoberto Uran

He will lose a lot of energy getting in the break away and the Mur de Pèguère might prove too hard for him to stay with the best. He however has lot of experience to know how to use his best abilities in keeping in sight the other riders and ride back in the descent.

★★☆☆☆ Bauke Mollema

Had there not been those cruel percentages in the final climb, he would have been the utmost favourite. Surprisingly, this could be his last shot at a stage win and he will make the most of it!

★★★☆☆ Neilson Powless

He will be in the break away to challenge Giulio Ciccone personally for KOM points. Unlike Ciccone whose only and foremost aim is the KOM, the American could switch target depending on how he feels mid stage.

★★☆☆ Thibaut Pinot 

The stage is preceded by 25 km of descent and that is not good for the Frenchman. Not the best descender, he will need at least 1 min of an advantage and lot of luck to make it.

★☆☆ Matej Mohoric

 A name we were expecting to hear more in this Tour de France. The opening km of the stage really favours him to get in the break. From then on, it will be a matter of holding on and keeping the front rider in sight on the climbs. With his legendary descending skill in his genome, 25 km is enough for him to make up for any ground he lost in the final climb.

★★★★☆ Carlos Verona

He took an amazing win in Vaujany in the Criterium Du Dauphine this year. Beaten by an unbelievable ride from Bob Jungels on stage 9 of this Tour,he has shown that he is one of the most in-form riders of the moment and is not far from his first Tour de France win.

★★★★☆ Thomas Pidcock

There are very few riders still in the race that could beat him if he manages to infiltrate/ bridge over to the break which will mainly depends on how much of their now limited resources Team Jumbo Visma is willing to use on a rider 8 minutes and 50 mins down. The most sane thing to do is to allow Tom Pidcock to go, climb and delight us in that 25 km long descent!

★★★★★ Alexandr Vlasov

What started as a very promising Tour de France 2022 for Bora-Hansgrohe could turn up into a big deception. Yet they can still turn things around and it can starts as from stage 16! Team Jumbo Visma will be initially reluctant on letting Vlasov , about 10 min down, get into the break away. The Russian will have to insist and with the help of powerful team-mates like Patrick Konrad, Max Schachmann and Felix Großschartner  he can manage to get away and use the formidable Kamna to propel him to a Stage win and maybe a late challenge for a top 5.

Make sure to tune as from 1215pm Central Europe, 0615am U.S. Eastern on or to watch the race free and live with us!

An exclusive post for Cycling today by A LeadOut 


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